A member commented at the January branch meeting about the accuracy of the “bookies” in predicting the outcome of political events. It was a fair point, bookies are in the betting game to make money and will always ensure the probabilities are stacked firmly in their favour. But I thought it would be interesting to visit this and maybe we can revisit it again as election time comes closer. As a side note providers like IG were pretty accurate with the ultimate outcome of the referendum.
This first graphic shows today’s (10th February 2015) price on IG Markets political spreads market. For those not familiar with the concept of buying or selling spreads, looking at the highlighted line you can see they quote 37 to buy and 35 to sell. In other words they think SNP will bag 36 seats. ( if you think it will be more you buy and you settle for the difference at the end result- ie. say SNP get 39 seats, you would “win” (39-37)x Stake size. If we only get 30 then you would lose (37-30) x Stake size. The point is they straddle what they see as the likely outcome.(you can’t make any money if they are right, they keep the spread.)
This second graphic was posted round Twitter today and shows an aggregated view of the outcome of the General Election as seen across ALL betting providers. Here the consensus is on SNP getting one less than IG’s quote at 35. You can see from both these graphics that everything is to play for with SNP potentially in a very strong position with the formation of the next UK Government. Remember only SNP will stand up and ensure Scotland’s voice is heard, loud and clear.
We will revisit this nearer the election and see how things have changed….. more seats to SNP 😉 ?